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HomeEducationThe Shrinking of Greater Ed

The Shrinking of Greater Ed

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Nearly 1.3 million college students have disappeared from American faculties in the course of the Covid-19 pandemic, elevating alarms that the enrollment emergency projected to reach a number of years from now’s already right here.

Excessive-school seniors bored with finding out on-line selected to defer. Working mother and father strained by the calls for of full-time pandemic youngster care put their research on maintain. Worldwide college students couldn’t get visas. These in majors with hands-on practicums or lab work discovered they couldn’t register for programs required for his or her levels.

Enrollment numbers proceed to look bleak because the pandemic drags on, although in-person lessons have grow to be the norm and consulates have reopened. Faculty attendance amongst undergraduates has fallen virtually 10 % since Covid emerged in early 2020; this spring, enrollment dropped 4.7 % from the 12 months earlier than, based on the Nationwide Scholar Clearinghouse Analysis Heart, a deeper-than-expected decline.

The persistence of the enrollment contraction has sparked fears that many college students usually are not merely lacking however gone for good. Analysis reveals that if college students cease out, they might not proceed with their research, and that’s significantly true for these from deprived backgrounds. “We now have to behave now,” stated Courtney Brown, vp for impression and planning on the Lumina Basis. “It is a disaster second.”

The pandemic enrollment slide has heightened worries at faculties about funds, particularly amongst these depending on tuition income to satisfy their backside strains. Even earlier than the Covid outbreak, the monetary resiliency of a 3rd of American faculties was poor, based on a brand new report from Bain & Firm.

Inflation is driving up faculties’ working prices, and a unstable inventory market is consuming into endowment returns. Small non-public faculties, regional public universities, and rural establishments all face robust headwinds, based on the bond company Fitch Scores. Federal stimulus funds that helped many faculties avert closures are working out. The outlook, stated Emily Wadhwani, senior director and sector lead for larger training at Fitch, is “weak getting weaker.”

In fact, doomsday eventualities have been floated earlier than. Time and time once more, in latest a long time, American larger training has grown its means out of crises. Faculties have expanded entry to underrepresented teams, added educational packages and facilities to draw college students and cost them larger tuition, and struck private-sector offers to faucet new markets.

This time appears completely different. Greater ed might have reached the boundaries of Houdini-ing its means out of decline by getting greater, and the extended pandemic downturn may very well be only one indication.

Public confidence in school is sinking, and college students and oldsters assume tuition is just too excessive. Skepticism is mounting towards the concept that a university training ought to be the prerequisite for well-paying jobs, and in a good labor market clamoring for employees, some persons are touchdown them with no diploma. Already, practically seven in 10 high-school graduates instantly go on to pursue, though not essentially full, some form of postsecondary training, and the rest could also be tough to recruit. The scholars overlooked of upper training have been notoriously tough for faculties to achieve and serve. After which there’s the looming demographic cliff created by the sharp drop in delivery charges that started in 2007.

“There actually is an arithmetic downside right here,” stated Anthony P. Carnevale, director of the Heart for Greater Schooling and the Workforce at Georgetown College. “There aren’t going to be sufficient college students to go round.”

In some ways, the pandemic’s results on enrollment have been particular and distinctive. Greater training is often countercyclical; that’s, folks enroll in school when the economic system goes south, to get abilities or as a result of they’ll’t discover a job. Regardless of a small recession in 2020, enrollment has fallen all through the pandemic, bucking that tendency.

Though the pattern line has been constantly downward, there was variation in who’s lacking from school. Within the first 12 months of the pandemic, enrollment drops have been better amongst males and traditional-age college students. A giant chunk of the gender disparity, not less than on the two-year-college stage, researchers have discovered, was due to males’s larger enrollment in hands-on packages like welding and auto mechanics, which have been more durable to show on-line or in socially distanced methods within the pandemic’s early months.

This spring, the patterns have been reversed, and enrollments of ladies and college students older than 25 fell extra sharply, because the variety of new freshmen picked up.

Nonetheless, the pandemic provides “painful” classes for faculties’ persevering with efforts to draw college students, stated Nathan D. Grawe, a professor of economics at Carleton Faculty. Enrollment losses have been significantly deep in areas with bigger low-income and minority populations, teams faculties have lagged in admitting. “Covid broken the connection between faculties and underrepresented teams, and it might make it more durable to recruit,” Grawe stated.

Likewise, group faculties and less-selective four-year establishments, already struggling for college kids, sustained a better hit throughout Covid. Grawe stated he’s heartened by some early indicators about fall enrollments, akin to a rebound in purposes for federal monetary support, however solely cautiously so. “Even in case you have success in recruitment,” he stated, “you’ve solely gained final 12 months.”

Illustration showing a series of mortarboards getting smaller and smaller

Delcan & Co. + Danielle Del Plato for The Chronicle

Grawe is aware of higher than most the daunting demographic challenges going through American faculties. In a pair of books, Demographics and the Demand for Greater Schooling and The Agile Faculty, he has outlined the impression of an abrupt drop in high-school graduates, starting just some years from now, in 2026. Sure kinds of establishments and sure areas of the nation will really feel the shortage of potential school college students extra acutely. Grawe tasks that over the next decade, the pool of candidates for two-year and regional four-year establishments might contract by 10 %.

Nonetheless, the demographic cliff has been looming for years, ever since delivery charges fell in the course of the recession of 2008-9. Just like the mud on the horizon stirred up by a horseback rider in a basic western, future inhabitants bubbles and busts may be seen far out, as teams of scholars transfer by way of elementary and secondary faculty, stated Patrick Lane, vp for coverage evaluation and analysis on the Western Interstate Fee for Greater Schooling, or Wiche, which additionally research enrollment traits. “These results present up within the information and stick round for a very long time.”

On condition that, ought to faculties have been higher ready for an enrollment contraction?

If larger ed was caught unprepared, the rationale may be rooted prior to now. This isn’t the primary time demography has appeared to carry faculties’ future. Prior to now, larger ed has at all times managed to develop its means out. This time, have been faculties overconfident that previous options would work once more?

The a long time following World Battle II noticed an brisk enlargement of upper training: Trainer-training faculties grew to become full-fledged faculties, group faculties sprang up throughout the nation, and grand state-university techniques, like these in California and New York, welcomed waves of scholars, first returning GIs after which the kids of the newborn increase.

However by the early Nineteen Eighties, the final of the newborn boomers have been transferring by way of school. The group of scholars then coming of age have been from a interval by which delivery charges had dipped; they’d later be dubbed Technology X.

Due to the Gen X child bust, Wiche projected that the variety of new high-school graduates in america would drop by one-quarter between 1979 and 1994. In sure Northeastern states, the fall-off was predicted to be far steeper — by greater than 40 % in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New York, and by practically 50 % in Rhode Island.

Earl Cheit, an economist who served as dean of the enterprise faculty on the College of California at Berkeley, warned that American faculties have been on the point of a “new despair.” Different forecasts recommended that between 10 % and 30 % of schools may very well be compelled to shut by the mid-Nineties, thanks partially to declining tuition income.

“The tone of the Golden Age of the Sixties was considered one of euphoria, of enlargement, of recent endeavors,” the influential Carnegie Council on Coverage Research in Greater Schooling wrote in a sobering 1980 report. “The brand new tone of the advancing demographic despair is now extra considered one of concern and even despair, of focus on contraction.”

“Excellence was the theme,” the Carnegie authors added. “Now it’s survival. Establishments have been buying and selling up; now they’re buying and selling down.”

Allow us to prevent the suspense: The collapse didn’t happen. Whereas the variety of high-school graduates did decline, school enrollments didn’t. Over the following 15-year interval, in reality, they climbed by 23 %, based on information collected by the Nationwide Heart for Schooling Statistics.

The Gen X enrollment disaster was averted by two elements, based on Paul E. Harrington, director of Drexel College’s Heart for Labor Markets and Coverage. First, extra ladies, together with grownup learners returning to high school, enrolled in school. Within the late Nineteen Seventies, women and men attended school in roughly equal numbers. By the mid-Nineties, ladies accounted for 55 % of enrollments.

The interval additionally coincided with a historic shift within the American economic system, away from one pushed by manufacturing. It had beforehand been potential to earn strong, middle-class wages with no school diploma — or perhaps a high-school diploma. In New Britain, Conn., then the “{hardware} capital of the world,” the highschool held “exit” ceremonies within the Sixties for teenage boys who left earlier than commencement to take skilled-trades jobs in native factories; by their early 20s, a lot of them had saved sufficient to purchase a home, Harrington stated.

Within the new service-and-knowledge economic system, the salaries of school graduates started to rise, whereas earnings of these with a high-school diploma or much less fell. In 1980, younger college-educated People made 23 % greater than their high-school-graduate counterparts, and by the top of the last decade, the college-earnings premium had doubled. By 2019, latest bachelor’s diploma graduates out-earned younger high-school grads by 77 %.

The altering economic system offered a transparent monetary incentive to go to school. Even because the variety of high-school graduates declined, the share who enrolled in school proper after commencement shot up, from 51 % in 1980 to 61 % in 1990. “The chance prices for going to school stored falling,” Harrington stated, “whereas the hole between these with a university diploma and people with out stored rising.”

If higher-education specialists have been skittish a few potential dip in enrollments getting into the Nineteen Eighties and Nineties, it was as a result of they’d solely just lately skilled a contraction. In that case, the offender was the draft.

With the Vietnam Battle raging, probably the most sure-fire path to a deferment from obligatory navy service was to enroll in school. Consequently, school numbers swelled within the late Sixties and the early Nineteen Seventies, with younger males who may need in any other case entered the work drive. A pair of researchers, David Card of Berkeley and Thomas Lemieux of the College of British Columbia, estimated that conscription avoidance raised college-attendance charges by 4 % to six % throughout that interval and the share of draft-age males with a university diploma by 2 %.

In early 1973, President Nixon ended the draft, lowering school’s attractiveness as a secure haven. However because the bulge in enrollments moved by way of the system, the provision of college-educated employees exceeded demand for them, at a time when manufacturing employment was at its peak. That oversupply depressed graduates’ wages, additional dampening the attraction of a better training. For the primary time in a long time, enrollments fell.

John R. Thelin, a professor emeritus on the College of Kentucky and writer of A Historical past of American Greater Schooling, stated declining enrollments weren’t the one pressures faculties, and their monetary mannequin, confronted. Excessive inflation and skyrocketing oil costs hit school budgets laborious. Due to campus expansions, establishments had lots of and lots of of recent buildings to warmth and light-weight. Some faculties discovered themselves within the purple.

Nor did school leaders really feel assured that elected officers, in Washington or within the statehouses, would assist alleviate their monetary misery. Widespread campus protests over Vietnam, civil rights, and free speech had soured public opinion. The Carnegie Council, in a retrospective report with resonance for in the present day’s school leaders, stated the unrest had “shattered confidence on campus and help in the neighborhood.” Some officers, like Gov. Ronald Reagan of California, had even efficiently run for workplace vowing to “clear up the mess” on campuses.

However the U.S. Congress ended up taking motion that helped reverse the enrollment decline. In 1972, lawmakers accredited the creation of a direct, need-based scholar financial-aid program. The Pell Grant helped develop entry to a brand new group of scholars who may beforehand not have been ready afford school — by 1976, practically one in 5 college students acquired an award. “Monetary support grew to become key to admissions,” Thelin stated.

And admissions, together with different campus scholar providers, started to grow to be extra professionalized throughout this era, targeted on methods to draw, recruit, and retain college students. Having stumbled into an enrollment downturn, faculties grew to become extra consider to dig themselves out.

Enrollment declines haven’t at all times been the chief trigger of schools’ monetary misery.

Throughout the recession of 2008-9, scholar numbers really rose; at some group faculties, demand was so nice that they supplied lessons earlier than daybreak.

However school budgets took a physique blow: Endowment returns bottomed out. As unemployment charges rose, fewer households might afford private-college tuition. In public-college techniques, spending per scholar plummeted, falling, on common, 18 % between 2008 and 2011. Practically a decade and a half later, help has by no means rebounded to pre-recession funding ranges in additional than half the states, based on the State Greater Schooling Govt Officers Affiliation.

Once more, for a lot of faculties, the reply was to develop, this time on-line and abroad. On-line training had sometimes been seen because the realm of for-profit establishments, however now extra nonprofit faculties pushed into the house, hoping to leverage nationwide, and even regional, reputations to achieve a contemporary crop of scholars. Some, notably Purdue College, struck offers with non-public firms to develop their attain, whereas others sought outdoors assist in administering their virtual-course choices.

By logging on, they hoped to take the school classroom to college students who lacked the time or flexibility to make it to campus.

The opposite new market was worldwide college students. American graduate packages had lengthy drawn one of the best and brightest from all over the world, however the recession coincided with a brand new world demand for undergraduate training. The starvation was particularly nice from China, which had a burgeoning center class with the means to pay for a prime American diploma.

Between the recession and the pandemic, worldwide enrollments soared by 76 %, to just about 1.1 million. Two-thirds of that progress was on the undergraduate stage, the place nearly all of college students pay the complete prices of their diploma.

The inflow of worldwide tuition income was a life-saver, not less than for some faculties. Analysis printed by the Nationwide Bureau of Financial Analysis discovered that as states spent much less of their budgets on larger training, worldwide enrollments rose. At public flagships and different research-intensive establishments, a 10-percent lower in state appropriations over a decade and a half was accompanied by a 17-percent enhance in overseas enrollments. At some establishments, worldwide college students accounted for 40 % or extra of recent tuition income.

Not all faculties benefited, nonetheless. Bachelor’s and grasp’s-level establishments didn’t see tuition good points from enrolling worldwide undergraduates, based on a research by Brendan Cantwell, an affiliate professor of training at Michigan State College. And a 2015 evaluation by The Chronicle discovered that over a 10-year interval, simply 10 % of schools absorbed 70 % of the international-student progress.

Likewise, not all faculties have the excessive profile or the particular area of interest to draw college students to on-line packages, stated Jeffrey Selingo, a senior fellow with the College Design Institute at Arizona State College and a former editor of The Chronicle. “These usually are not levers that each one faculties can pull.”

And worldwide enrollments, which fell sharply in the course of the pandemic, had already begun to melt earlier than Covid struck. Due to fierce world competitors, the institution of fine universities in college students’ residence nations, and an unwelcoming American political local weather, few specialists count on foreign-student numbers to return to the times of double-digit progress.

With model names and mega-universities like Southern New Hampshire College, which have a broad attain and complex technique for attracting college students, already crowding the online-education market, there might not be house for brand spanking new entrants. Authorities scrutiny of schools’ offers with third-party online-program managers might enhance.

Girls, too, could also be tapped out as a progress market. In spite of everything, they now account for 57 % of the scholars at American faculties and an even larger share of the levels earned.

Trying round, what’s the following new factor?

“Faculties are mining methods of earlier generations,” stated Thelin, the higher-ed historian, “and so they’re working out.”

The pandemic might lengthen faculties’ challenges past the looming demographic cliff. A 2021 research of public-school enrollments by Wiche discovered that whereas high-school-graduation charges really went up early within the pandemic, primary- and middle-school grades noticed steep enrollment declines. There have been 4 % fewer sixth graders within the fall of 2020, for instance, than within the earlier 12 months. It’s unclear if such declines are everlasting or momentary, however they may have an effect on the pool of future school college students. Studying loss in the course of the pandemic might additionally have an effect on school readiness.

Very similar to the 2008-9 recession, Covid seems to have brought about a child bust, accelerating already declining delivery charges. That might have an effect on the school pipeline nicely into the following era. “Ten, 15 years from now,” Lane, the Wiche vp, stated, “we’ll be coming again to the pandemic.”

To cease additional backsliding, faculties might want to recruit and retain the very college students they’ve traditionally struggled to draw, together with college students from low-income and minority backgrounds. Faculty-graduation charges for People within the lowest revenue brackets have barely budged over the past 50 years. The share of Black, Hispanic, and Native American adults with a high-school diploma or much less is a lot larger than for the inhabitants as an entire.

Though practically half of all undergraduates are actually college students of colour, achievement gaps stay, particularly for Black college students. Throughout the pandemic, the share of scholars coming from high-poverty excessive faculties or these with giant minority populations dropped sharply, and plenty of of those college students have been slower to return to school.

Anthony Carnevale, of Georgetown, famous that schools might face a further handicap in recruiting minority college students if the U.S. Supreme Court docket additional limits, and even strikes down, affirmative motion. The courtroom agreed to listen to arguments in two instances that would have main implications in how faculties take into account race in admissions.

So who’s left to enroll? This 12 months, Selingo invited three school presidents from three very completely different establishments — a big public college, one of many nation’s few work faculties, and a ladies’s school with a various, low-income scholar physique — to share their predictions for the following 5 years on a podcast he co-hosts referred to as FutureU. All three answered the identical means: a give attention to nontraditional college students.

Grownup learners are an enormous potential pool of scholars — some 39 million People alone have attended school however left with no diploma. Enrolling even a portion of those college students might assist soften the impression of the demographic cliff, or make up pandemic scholar losses.

A few of these former college students could also be open to returning. A latest survey by Gallup and Lumina discovered that 56 % of one-time college students who stopped out earlier than the pandemic can be open to re-enrolling. As well as, 40 % of adults surveyed who had by no means attended school stated they’d take into account going to school, with most concerned about an affiliate diploma or certificates.

However curiosity is one factor. Motion is one other. Within the Gallup-Lumina survey, adults cited work and household obligations as main hurdles to returning to school. And plenty of faculties lack the executive buildings to re-enroll and retain grownup learners, though quite a lot of states and nonprofit teams have begun efforts to assist help nontraditional college students.

Main efforts to enroll grownup college students have struggled. An online-only group school in California meant to serve the two.5 million state residents between ages 25 and 34 with no diploma had awarded certificates to simply 70 college students by way of its second 12 months of operation.

The greatest barrier to attracting new college students or luring again those that have left, although, is value. Greater than half of the respondents within the Gallup-Lumina survey stated it was why they’d not enrolled. A 3rd of present college students who’ve thought-about dropping out additionally cite value because the trigger.

For faculties that haven’t been capable of faucet new markets to develop their enrollments, their progress technique has been tuition. Over the previous 4 a long time, the common value of an undergraduate training has elevated by 175 %, based on the U.S. Division of Schooling.

Cantwell, the Michigan State professor, stated tuition will increase might not be possible. Households are maxed out — solely a 3rd of the youngest People, together with present school college students and up to date graduates, stated it was potential to get an reasonably priced training past highschool, based on a survey by New America; lower than half of millennials and Technology X-ers agreed. With inflation rising, small tuition will increase will not cowl faculties’ elevated prices, Cantwell stated. “It’s simply off the desk.”

The New America survey discovered {that a} majority of People would love the federal government to pay extra of the prices of school. However the way forward for political proposals to assist defray prices is unsure, and Carnevale factors out that efforts like free school wouldn’t assist keep or develop entry and enrollments in any respect faculties — simply at public establishments. Current legislative proposals have targeted solely on making two years of group school tuition free.

In the meantime, Carnevale stated, elected officers could also be sending a combined message on school. Infrastructure laws handed by Congress final 12 months will create practically eight million jobs, not less than quickly, that don’t require a university diploma. And each time a ribbon-cutting ceremony is held for a brand new infrastructure venture or work-force-training program, a neighborhood reporter will ask the assembled politicians whether or not folks have to go to school to get a superb job, he stated.

The reply is, because it has been for the reason that decline of the manufacturing period, {that a} school diploma is probably the most sure-fire approach to financial safety. Of the 35-million job openings within the subsequent decade, based on estimates by Carnevale and his Georgetown colleagues, 40 % will go to employees with school levels, and one other 30 % to folks with not less than some postsecondary coaching.

In relation to “good jobs,” outlined by the Georgetown heart as these paying a wage of not less than $45,000 at midcareer, three-quarters of these held by school graduates qualify. Solely a 3rd of employees with a high-school diploma or much less have a superb jobsic all per CEW.

But, that message will not be getting by way of. Two-thirds of respondents within the New America survey stated it was potential to discover a steady, well-paying job with only a high-school diploma or GED.

The truth is, People could also be listening to the alternative message — that school will not be the golden ticket to a superb job within the new, high-demand labor market. Governors in Maryland and Colorado have instructed state businesses to drop four-year-degree necessities in hiring for state jobs. Underneath a new legislation in Arizona, public-school lecturers not have to have earned a level, simply be enrolled in school.

Illustration showing a tiny college diploma

Delcan & Co. + Danielle Del Plato for The Chronicle

And a brand new nationwide promoting marketing campaign is urging employers to look past the “paper ceiling” of a bachelor’s diploma when hiring. As a substitute, job seekers might achieve obligatory abilities by way of apprenticeships, boot camps, credentials, and certifications.

In fact, faculties, significantly two-year establishments, supply badges, microcredentials, and different short-term coaching. However they face competitors from firms, nonprofit teams, and different instructional suppliers.

The rise of other instructional fashions is “difficult the connection between larger training and the economic system,” and never simply in america, stated Simon Marginson, a professor of upper training on the College of Oxford and an knowledgeable on world and comparative training. “Our understanding of the connection is shifting.”

That shift may very well be away from school, simply as establishments want to draw new college students.

If larger training can not develop, does it shrink?

That won’t be really easy to do. You’ll be able to’t unbuild buildings. Administrative buildings — a lot of which have been put in place to help the nontraditional college students who’re seen as a means out of enrollment woes — are tough to dismantle. Though faculties have employed extra adjunct instructors lately, the strictures of tenure work towards making cuts within the school ranks.

Over the previous decade, in reality, there was a mismatch between school hiring and enrollment traits. Even because the variety of college students enrolled in public faculties declined, by 6 %, school ranks elevated by 3 %, based on a Chronicle evaluation of U.S. Division of Schooling information. Non-public nonprofit faculties gained college students — enrollments between 2009 and 2020 elevated by 9 % — however hiring elevated quicker, by 18 %.

Whereas group faculties misplaced practically a 3rd of their school work drive throughout that interval, the enrollment decline was even steeper, 35 %.

Administrative overhead has additionally elevated over time, with faculties including practically 110,000 directors over a decade. In 2010, there have been 78 full-time undergraduate college students for each full-time administration workers member. By the autumn of 2020, the ratio had dropped, to 38 undergrads per supervisor.

Faculty boards rent presidents and chancellors for his or her ambitions, to not make subtractions, stated David F. Labaree, a historian of training and a professor emeritus at Stanford College. “You don’t compete by chopping prices. You compete by including particular providers and new packages and fancy dorms,” stated Labaree, writer of A Excellent Mess, about American larger training. “As a college president, you don’t make your title and fortune by making ready for the decline.”

However not less than one campus chief is volunteering to be the president of retrenchment. At Henderson State College, in Arkansas, Charles Ambrose, the president, minimize 25 diploma packages, eradicated 57 administrative positions, and laid off 67 school members, 44 of them with tenure, after declaring monetary exigency. The faculty will focus its curriculum round educational packages with demonstrated scholar and employer demand.

“We’re now having to deconstruct the issues that we as soon as invested in as a result of they don’t supply returns to college students,” Ambrose stated in an interview.

Ambrose acknowledges that Henderson State’s state of affairs was dire — the school wouldn’t have been capable of make its subsequent payroll with out the emergency measures. However at many different faculties, he stated, the monetary mannequin merely is not sustainable, particularly at small non-public and regional public faculties like his.

“This subsequent era of leaders isn’t going to have the choice of kicking the can down the street,” he stated, “as a result of we’re out of cans.”

Sure, there are a privileged few establishments that may nonetheless continue to grow. Extremely selective faculties shall be touched much less by the demographic contractions in Grawe’s evaluation, their pedigree and profile attracting candidates from throughout the nation and all over the world. And huge public universities, the flagship establishments, will be capable to pull in college students. You’ll be able to already see the bifurcation this fall, as some faculties fear about assembly enrollment targets, whereas for the others, the headache is methods to home all their new college students.

Thelin has seen it at his personal establishment, the College of Kentucky. Despite the fact that total college-going charges within the state have declined barely lately, the coed physique has grown over the previous twenty years. There may be another lever to drag, in spite of everything, and the expansion market is college students who may need gone to school elsewhere. “It’s virtually like social Darwinism,” Thelin stated.

Again at first, within the nineteenth century, American larger training grew wildly and unchecked. Many faculties have been based by spiritual teams, and each denomination had its personal establishments. In a frontier society, faculties stood for legitimacy and civilization, and communities sought them out, to place themselves on the map. By 1880, Labaree stated, Ohio had extra faculties than in all of France.

It’s in American larger training’s DNA, then, this progress mind-set. And now the expansion might have reached its peak.

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